I’ve got $5 (CAD) on it: betting on the future of skateboarding in 2025
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In the relatively short period of time that online sports gambling has been legal across most of North America and Europe, it has thoroughly entrenched itself in our cultural consciousness and functions. Sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel are now names nearly as recognizable and ubiquitous as McDonald's and ESPN. The latter even created its own sportsbook, ESPN Bet, to get in on the action and further swamp its broadcasts in sports betting ads and gambling segments. In a portent of a future where sports become secondary to the wagering of money on sports, 16 ailing regional sports networks were recently subsumed and rebranded as the FanDuel Sports Network.
The presence of these entities is seemingly inescapable. Unavoidable. A study from CBC Marketplace and researchers from the University of Bristol found that we "spend up to 20% of every game watching gambling advertising." Given this aggressive, ugly, yet effective push for domination, it's not surprising that online sports betting as we know it is wreaking serious harm on those who partake, particularly young adults. So what is a person to do in the face of such everyday, deregulated horror? Submit, obviously.
Welcome to "I've got 5 (CAD) on it," Simple Magic’s 4th annual year-end sports and culture gambling column, where you’ll find the world's most trusted skateboarding-related futures predictions and betting odds.
It’s here where I demonstrate confidence in my oddsmaking by, as the title suggests, putting (an imaginary) $5 (CAD) on each prediction to see how they fare once the year is up. Below, you’ll find the results from 2024's "I've got $5 (CAD) on it" odds and predictions, followed by what will be considered by this time next year, the startling omniscience of my 2025 projections.
Betting on the future of skateboarding in 2024: RESULTS
It took a few years of doing this annual column — and being force-fed sports betting content in every broadcast and podcast I tuned into — but now I finally have a decent grasp on how the betting actually works. Besides the losing-your-money part, that was always clear. Without further ado, here are the fifteen predictions I made for 2024, how my hypothetical $5 (CAD) bets went for each, and the state my hypothetical $75 (CAD) bankroll was left in by the end.
(+750) Skechers, looking to build off the momentum of their signing of reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid, reenter the skateboarding market and sign Alex Midler and Leticia Bufoni as their first athlete ambassadors.
BUST: I got a little ahead of myself here, but who can blame me, especially when the long-serving mall brand is putting out tantalizing silhouettes like this:
Honestly, would. Also, is Embiid riding for Skechers akin to a Luan Oliveira getting on Cariuma? It certainly makes me feel sad in the same way. Ah well.
PAYOUT: $0 (CAD)
(-100) A PRO or AM skateboarder releases an apology video on YouTube where they address accusations of ABDs in one of their video parts.
BUST: In the summer of 2023, Ryan Sheckler was riding high. His Lifer video part and subsequent Red Bull-produced "documentary" Ryan Sheckler: Rolling Away had just come out and people were excited. It was legitimately cool to see this evolution of the child star, one who'd struggled with myriad addiction and injury issues, persevere and release one of his best on-board efforts to date. It would even land him on the longlist of Thrasher's Skater of the Year contenders.
However, the sloppy PR drivel of Rolling Away was followed by viewers clocking that a good percentage of Sheckler's tricks in Lifer were obvious Already Been Dones, to the degree that it inspired a number of YouTube videos and social media posts lambasting the grown man known as Shecks.
Sheckler hasn't addressed those ABDs, and I'm not terribly concerned with them myself; however, they remain a taboo within professional skateboarding, so I threw this one out there on the off chance that the increased ABD stigma would be enough for at least one offending skater to apologize. As far as I know, no one has. And really, no one should — except in this case, where I had money on the line.
PAYOUT: $0 (CAD)
(+100) A once-notable skateboarder becomes a regular guest at Tim Pool and Richie Jackson’s Bigot Berrics, bumming out child you.
BUST: Does Ricky Glaser count as notable?
PAYOUT: $0 (CAD)
(-150) A Street League Skateboarding event has a broadcast intermission featuring a Dana White’s Power Slap League… bout? Slap-off? Whatever it’s called.
CASHED: Technically, as far as I'm aware, a... slapdown(?) did not happen at an SLS event, but with Power Slap and SLS being owned to some degree by UFC CEO and noted wife-slapper Dana White or his venture Thrill One Entertainment, and both sharing a broadcast partner in the odious video platform Rumble, there was a lot of cross-promotion. Much of it awkward, which is to be expected since having a slapping contest promote anything is undisputably wack.
So, yes, my prediction didn't entirely come to fruition, but if Dana White can make unfounded claims (i.e. lies) about Power Slap every other day, I should be able to claim I won here.
PAYOUT: $3.3 (CAD)
(+500) Cordano Russell makes it onto the podium for Canada in Skateboarding Street at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games and does at least one nollie-270-shove-boardslide on his way there.
CASHED-ISH: Russell did not make it onto the podium, but he did make it to the finals and ended up in 7th, which is incredibly impressive for such a new face on the scene. On top of that, he did so many nollie-270-shove-boardslides that I consider this prediction nailed. Sort of.
PAYOUT: $12.5 (CAD)
(+1500) Vincent Milou, finding inspiration in his home-country crowd, digs deep and wins gold in Skateboarding Street at the Paris 2024 Olympics.
BUST: Let's not talk about this any further.
PAYOUT: $0 (CAD)
(+100) Kairi Netsuke qualifies for the Japanese Olympic Skateboarding team (in Street) and lands a heelflip-backside-tailslide-bigspin in competition at the Paris 2024 Olympics.
BUST: Not quite. But considering the hot streak he's currently on, who's to say this won't cash in 2028?
PAYOUT: $0 (CAD)
(+200) Rayssa Leal wins gold in Skateboarding Street at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
BUST: Nope! But she got silver this time after getting bronze in Tokyo, which means she's trending in the right direction.
PAYOUT: $0 (CAD)
(-500) You learn a new trick on your skateboard and it feels fucking great.
CASHED: You nailed that one, huh? So sick. Have you tried to shove-it out yet?
PAYOUT: $1 (CAD)
(+200) Tony Hawk finally gets investigated by the FTC for his promotion of NFTs and addresses the issue on an episode of Hawk vs. Wolf.
BUST: Not only is this a bust, but Hawk vs. Wolf recently announced that they're going on an indefinite hiatus. Ouch. However! However, there's always the chance that an investigation just hasn't been publicly announced yet.
PAYOUT: $0 (CAD)
(-150) Late Night Stars’ video ◯, which premiered after all the notable EOY list cutoffs in 2023, makes it to the top of most “best of” lists in 2024 — as it should.
CASHED: I mean, was there any doubt?
PAYOUT: $3.3 (CAD)
(-250) 2 Riser Pads assembles the best team in modern skateboarding history.
CASHED: Bro, just take a look.
PAYOUT: $2 (CAD)
(+300) A major footwear brand gives a pro model shoe (not just a colourway) to a female, non-binary, or trans skateboarder.
BUST: Following the success of Alexis Sablone and Leo Baker's signature shoe releases on Converse CONS and Nike SB, respectively, would the industry recognize the market appeal of celebrating, for lack of a better term, non-traditional skateboarders? No, they would not.
PAYOUT: $0 (CAD)
(+100) Tyler Surrey makes waves by finally leaving SK8MAFIA to join Sour Solution Skateboards — but jumps ship back to the ‘MAFIA before the end of 2024.
CASHED-ISH: C'mon, the guy rides for Sour Solution, whether he wants to admit it or not.
PAYOUT: $5 (CAD)
(-1000) Once more, you find love or continue to love and be loved.
CASHED: Easy dub.
PAYOUT: $0.5 (CAD)
PREDICTIONS RECORD FOR 2024:
Cashed: 6/151
Bust: 8/15
EARNINGS: $27.6
TOTAL: 67.6
2024 RESULTS: I started with a hypothetical $75 (CAD) and ended the year in the red with a hypothetical -$7.4 (CAD). Damn.
Betting on the future of skateboarding in 2025: PREDICTIONS
Somewhere, embedded deep in the DNA of every skateboarder is a knowing. Whether it's understanding what trick someone is about to attempt by catching a glimpse of their shoulder positioning yards ahead of an obstacle or the culture-wide propensity to divine and establish trends in fashion, music, art, and so on — the skateboarder possesses a primordial attunement to what lies ahead.
The prescience of the following 15 predictions and their accompanying betting odds are no different, and as Thunder Trucks has coyly alluded to for years, represent the skateboarder's ability to Know Future.
(+135) DVS Shoes' directionless revamp releases a promo video, which is surprisingly decent. The company goes dormant once more before the year is up.
(+100) Zombie Lakai reveals its new team on January 31, and at least one rider affected by recent Etnies and Emerica layoffs is on board.
(-300) In a bleak twist, Cariuma carries more industry credibility than DVS and Lakai by year's end.
(+300) A new product gimmick is introduced to the skateboarding world, and, for a brief, confusing moment, everyone is stoked.
(+200) A skateboarder breaks new ground by being the first to receive a signature model shoelace.
(-100) Jared Kushner is embroiled in a scandal after a story breaks that reveals another disturbing slate of investors in his already vast private equity firm. Harmony Korine's project EDGLRD, a rumoured Kushner beneficiary, is accused of accepting blood money.
(+350) EDGLRD releases an app that filters skate clips to make it look like the skateboarder is a demon with a skin condition and bad posture. The app is later revealed to be a trojan horse for Israeli spyware.
(-200) Cordano Russell does a fakie-frontside-180-frontside nosegrind down a handrail.
(-120) Skateboarding's big trend for 2025: Christianity.
(+250) A non-American wins Thrasher Magazine's Skater of The Year award.
(-100) Primitive Skateboards gives Andrew Huberman a guest pro model.
(-150) Real Skateboards turns Momiji Nishiya PRO AF.
(+400) The Nine Club runs out of relevant or interesting skateboarders to interview, so they invite me to be on as a guest.
(-500) New skateboarding media ventures flourish.
(-1500) You continue to love and be loved.
A Simple Magic 2024 wrap-up
Thank you to everyone who reads and subscribes to this newsletter. It is a pleasure to write and it's a treat to know that people actually read and (allegedly) enjoy it. Some beloved Custodians and Champions of Simple Magic even hand over their hard-earned monies for this thing. You are all greatly appreciated.
Overall, 2024 was a decent year for the newsletter. Numbers-wise, I published a total of 63 posts and approximately 181,682 words. When it comes to subscribers, Simple Magic's growth stagnated a bit following the move from Substack to Ghost last January, which was expected as Ghost doesn't have a similar recommendation system or social platform aspect as Substack and Ghost regularly prunes inactive subscribers. That said, the 'sletter still welcomed 239 new subs and its email open rates are much higher over this time last year, floating in the high 50 and 60 percent range (and for some reason, reaching a somewhat shocking 77% for this one). Direct views on the site have increased as well, according to Google Analytics.
Besides those boring numbers, there was fun stuff, like the collab with Antisocial Skateboard Shop and the addition of contributors to the newsletter. We're currently cooking up some good stuff related to the latter for 2025, so keep your eyes on your inboxes. If you're on the Simple Magic site, you'll notice I gave it a little facelift and added new category and topic tags for better navigation. Personally, I love scrolling through a good website, so hopefully this makes it more appealing to do so here.
Anyhow, enough navel gazing. Thank you again, happy New Year, and I love you.
-Cole
Something to consider:
Abubaker Abed
Good things: Skate Bylines and Three Hundred and Sixty Degrees of Game are already fulfilling my second-to-last 2025 prediction.
Natalie Porter
Wes Allen
Another good thing: Top-quality Year End Content. Lehz go.
Snack
Posted by
Templeton
Defector Staff
Another good David Roth thing:
David Roth
Until next week… it's a New Year, which can mean a New You, but Old You is good, too.
1 CASHED-ISH count as 1/2
Laser Quit Smoking Massage
NEWEST PRESS
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My new collection of essays is available now. I think you might like it. The Edmonton Journal thinks it's a "local book set to make a mark in 2024." The CBC called it "quirky yet insightful." lol.
Book cover by Hiller Goodspeed.
Right, Down + Circle
ECW PRESS
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I wrote a book about the history and cultural impact of Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater that you can find at your local bookshop or order online now. I think you might like this one, too.
Here’s what Michael Christie, Giller Prize-nominated author of the novels Greenwood and If I Fall, If I Die, had to say about the thing.
“With incisive and heartfelt writing, Cole Nowicki unlocks the source code of the massively influential cultural phenomenon that is Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater, and finds wonderful Easter-eggs of meaning within. Even non-skaters will be wowed by this examination of youth, community, risk, and authenticity and gain a new appreciation of skateboarding’s massive influence upon our larger culture. This is my new favorite book about skateboarding, which isn’t really about skateboarding — it’s about everything.”
Photo via The Palomino.
